Update 2: I completed my predictions with the actual results. Correct predictions are in green, wrong result but on the podium are orange and flat-out wrong predictions are red. Actual results are in italics.

Out of 24, I got 4 completely right and 7 completely wrong, which means 13 correct finalists at incorrect places. I also got my Galvao prediction right. Not too bad, but since my picks were quite conservative it’s not that good either.

Update: Brackets are out and several last minute changes, including some of my picks. Here’s the final version:

Male -66 kg

  1. Cobrinha Cobrinha
  2. Geo Martinez Bruno Frazatto
  3. Eddie Cummings Augusto Mendes
  4. Mark Ramos Geo Martinez

Male -77 kg

  1. Garry Tonon Davi Ramos
  2. Gilbert Burns Lucas Lepri
  3. Otavio Souza Gilbert Burns
  4. Davi Ramos Otavio Souza

Male -88 kg

  1. Romulo Barral Yuri Simoes
  2. Keenan Cornelius Keenan Cornelius
  3. Rafael Lovato Jr. Romulo Barral
  4. Yuri Simoes Rustav Chsiev

Male -99 kg

  1. Rodolfo Vieira Rodolfo Vieira
  2. Joao Assis Felipe Pena
  3. Xande Ribeiro Joao Assis
  4. Felipe Pena Xande Ribeiro

Male +99 kg

  1. Rodrigo Cavaca Orlando Sanchez
  2. Vinny Magalhaes Jared Dopp
  3. Abraham Marte Vinny Magalhaes
  4. Dean Lister Joao Gabriel

Female -60 kg

  1. Mackenzie Dern
  2. Michelle Nicolini
  3. Beatriz Mesquita
  4. Tammi Musumeci

There’s a new player in town! FloGrappling just launched a couple of days ago, and aside from the attrocious leading I’m positively surprised. They have lots of good articles, and this one by AJ Agrazam is far from the worst — contrary to what I expected, to be honest. So now I want to give my own predictions for the 2015 ADCC. Of course a lot depends on the brackets, but I’ll do without.

Male -66 kg

  1. Cobrinha
  2. Eddie Cummings
  3. Justin Rader
  4. Geo Martinez

I’m stocked to see Nicolas Renier, a french competitor, in this ADCC. But while he’s probably one of the best here in France, the competition in this division just seems too tough. Eddie Cummings has simply exploded over the past few month, but it may be a bit too early to win it all. And with Miyao out, I think Cobrinha is the most likely to win. I’m curious to see how Geo Martinez does but after the upset at EBI4, it seems that a good leg lock awareness and solid wrestling (as displayed by his foe Joe Soto) can shut him down… and that’s what Justin Rader brings to the table.

Glover was letargic in his match against the — admitedly much bigger — Ezra Lenon at FIVE and I fear age might start being a problem here. Grippo is probably too one dimensional for the ADCC.

Male -77 kg

  1. Garry Tonon
  2. JT Torres
  3. Lucas Lepri
  4. Dillon Danis

This year is Garry Tonon year. The dude is on fire and I just can’t see anyone stopping him here. The big names of BJJ such as Torres and Lepri will be hard to beat but I think their leglock game is still lacking. The UFC crew (Henderson, Burns) are tough clients but should get cleaned by grappling specialists.

I’m predicting Danis to step in as Marcelo’s heir. While he probably still lacks the experience to take it all, I’m expecting a strong outing. I’ll keep an eye out on Mateusz, Magomed and Ramos — I don’t know them enough to predict anything, but they could be a surprise.

Male -88 kg

  1. Romulo Barral
  2. Keenan Cornelius
  3. Rafael Lovato Jr.
  4. Yuri Simoes

This division is so amazing, I could be completely off here. But Barral comes in strong from his win in the 2013 ADCC and this time it’s at home. Lovato Jr. and him are, I think, the biggest threats to a field that Cornelius could otherwise beat. Simoes has always be one of the top guys, confirming it again at the recent FIVE SuperLeague. Watch out for Calasans and Popovitch as well.

Male -99 kg

  1. Rodolfo Vieira
  2. Joao Assis
  3. Xande Ribeiro
  4. Felipe Pena

Nice Field here too, but Vieira seems above the rest. Assis had a good showing at FIVE and is the returning champ, but I can’t see him defeat Rodolfo. Ribeiro and Pena should be in the race for medals as well. I just don’t see any of the MMA guys imposing their will in pure grappling here, and Friedrich showed how good top pressure can shut his game down.

Male +99 kg

  1. Bernardo Faria
  2. Jeff Monson
  3. Rodrigo Cavaca
  4. Vinny Magalhaes

Lots of old guard representatives here. I don’t know enough about most of these guys, but who could beat Fariah in this field? Monson already medailled at ADCC once and might do it again.

Female -60 kg

  1. Mackenzie Dern
  2. Michelle Nicolini
  3. Beatriz Mesquita
  4. Tammi Musumeci

I’ve said it before, but Dern is simply on another level than her competitors now. Nicolini was hanging in there but with Dern’s explosion and her transition to MMA, I can’t see her win. The two runner ups are also quite safe predictions, but because I don’t know much about the rest of the field, I may miss a potential upset here.

Female +60 kg

Sorry, I barely know anyone in this division — except Gabi Garcia, and really, I assume she’s going to win it again.

Absolutes

There are so many candidates for a win, but at that level the size advantage gets you a solid boost — so I say Faria goes double gold. Too bad for guys like Tonon and Cornelius who might still have a good run. I’d also expect some big names who failed to get the gold in their division to turn it on. Maybe Xande Ribeiro or Yuri Simoes.

Mário Sperry vs. Ricardo Liborio

I’m too uneducated on them to make any clever prediction.

André Galvão vs. Cyborg

I’m pretty sure Galvao takes this one home. Not only do I agree with AJ here that Galvao’s game is likely superior to Cyborgs, but the latter has also pulled out of a few fights in a row due to injuries. I guess time is taking to take it’s toll and wa may witness the begining of Cyborg’s decline.